According to analysis from Morgan Stanley, Amazon Logistics parcel volume will surpass UPS and FedEx by 2022.
A research note this week from Morgan Stanley estimates Amazon is delivering roughly 46% of the items ordered through its U.S. site today — a total of 2.5 billion parcels in 2019. Amazon Logistics’ share of its own orders doubled in 2019.
Amazon’s 2019 parcel volume was still lower than that of FedEx (3 billion) and UPS (4.7 billion), but at the current speed of growth, Morgan Stanley expects Amazon Logistics will overtake the legacy players in 2022.
Amazon Logistics parcel volume will reach 65% of total U.S. Amazon orders by 2022, according to Morgan Stanley’s analysis based on parcel data from roughly 70,000 Amazon transactions.
Morgan Stanley concludes what many in the industry have believed for a while now— Amazon is a threat to traditional parcel carriers.
“We see convincing evidence of Amazon not only having enough capacity to insource a significant portion of its own volumes but also building enough of a capacity pipeline that would allow it to carry third-party packages and become a competitor to UPS and FedEx,” the note reads.